Budget Box Pass

[mrtr33]

Nice swaps, Nate. Those P/T's are very close in value.

I took craig's advice, and looked up a couple of sites via google, and found an average price of $19.71 for the Bolivar Simones RE Canada, but I may have done something wrong, I don't know. Anyone else get anything different? I know nothing of ISOMs.

I can't come up with the $7.92 avg. on the PSD#4. I threw out the lowest two prices and still get $7.69.

T #28 I came up with an average price of $3.90, but maybe I did my math wrong/P #45 is dead-on.

I also had a question about T #34/P #46. Even if the Hemingway Classic Nat is $7.50, how is that an equal or greater trade than the Vegas Robaina - $7.60? Just curious. I came up with $7.34 as the price for the Hemingway Classic Natural.

I'm not pointing fingers or accusing at all. I'm asking questions.

[badwhale]

I didn't do any homework on the puts yet. Maybe tonight.

As far as the Bolivar Simone, I found two sources at $1059/box of 50 that comes out to $21.18.

I'll edit this post tonight with more info if I get to it.

Ahh screw it. I just did it now.
Here's my analysis:

(Nate's puts / takes):
Take 36 ~ Worth:$7.88 Put 44 ~ Worth: $7.48
Take 28 ~ Worth:$4.78 Put 45 ~ Worth: $4.88
Take 34 ~ Worth:$8.36 Put 46 ~ Worth: $7.34
Take 26 ~ Worth:$21.18 Put 47 ~ Worth: $Not called out yet....

I'm not getting this under / over-lier stuff. I'm not sure why my average for the Party D is off.
Will

[FactoredReality]

LIMITS: You can take a maximum of two cigars from any one tray

If Nate wants to take the #26 D-Long Bolivar Simones RE Canada Nov 07 he would need to revise one of his other tray D swaps to be from a different tray correct?

[mrtr33]

Take 36 ~ Worth:$7.88 Put 44 ~ Worth: $7.48

I'm not getting this under / over-lier stuff. I'm not sure why my average for the Party D is off.

Will,

I got your $7.48 average price when I originally did the math: =((175.15+223.95+172.25+198+171+173.6+229.4+194.3+ 164+168.75)/25)/10

I then threw out the lowest value ($164). I probably, for fairness, thrown out the highest value ($229.40). Where I got my number, I actually threw out the lowest two prices, but still didn't come up with the $7.92. I was just wondering how that number was arrived at. If I understand correctly, the whole thought behind throwing out highest or lowest prices found is that they are not a true reflection of what the cigars can realistically be bought for. In the above case, I would think that the higher values (the $220+) would be tossed out if anything, because they are the only values which are above $200 - all the rest of the values are relatively close to each other. I may have misunderstood this train of thought, however.

I did take the price of the Vegas Robaina at the value it was traded in, which was $7.60, when Rich put it in the pass. I thought I remembered reading something somewhere in this thread where craig mentioned the ISOM sticks going into the pass remain at the price they were traded in at - that's why I kept the VR at a static value. Ultimately, however, the host has the final say.

[prophetic_joe]

Nice swaps, Nate. Those P/T's are very close in value.

I took craig's advice, and looked up a couple of sites via google, and found an average price of $19.71 for the Bolivar Simones RE Canada, but I may have done something wrong, I don't know. Anyone else get anything different? I know nothing of ISOMs.

I can't come up with the $7.92 avg. on the PSD#4. I threw out the lowest two prices and still get $7.69.

T #28 I came up with an average price of $3.90, but maybe I did my math wrong/P #45 is dead-on.

I also had a question about T #34/P #46. Even if the Hemingway Classic Nat is $7.50, how is that an equal or greater trade than the Vegas Robaina - $7.60? Just curious. I came up with $7.34 as the price for the Hemingway Classic Natural.

I'm not pointing fingers or accusing at all. I'm asking questions.

The PSD #4 price was the price I found for single currently on one of the only ISOM sites I know. I have not found a very good way to average those sticks. I can find something closer that I know the exact price of, I was attempting to keep as many ISOM for ISOM ttrades as possible though.

As for the Hemingway Versus the VR the reasoning I had was that it was .10 and we had a discussion previously of trying to not keep upping the value of stick so as some of the newer participants could still participate without breaking their bank. I just figured value for value a dime was close enough. Vegas Robaina price is directly from the first post. It says there $7.60 so that's what I went with.

[ashauler]

The PSD #4 price was the price I found for single currently on one of the only ISOM sites I know. I have not found a very good way to average those sticks. As for the Hemingway Versus the VR the reasoning I had was that it was .10 and we had a discussion previously of trying to not keep upping the value of stick so as some of the newer participants could still participate without breaking their bank. I just figured value for value a dime was close enough.

Vegas Robaina price is directly from the first post. It says there $7.60 so that's what I went with.

On the comparison shopper, there is an international version a little lower on the page from where you access the domestic version.

[prophetic_joe]

On the comparison shopper, there is an international version a little lower on the page from where you access the domestic version.

DOH!! And now I know, and knowing kids is half the battle.

[EGQ]

Just an FYI -- I'm off to Detroit for business (hopefully only a day or two). I should be back before Nate gets the package to me.

[craig]

Just an FYI -- I'm off to Detroit for business (hopefully only a day or two). I should be back before Nate gets the package to me.

Is there someone who can take the package if you're not there? (and hopefully put it in a cool place?)

Prophetic_Joe:
I'll set the value on the Simones at $12US. I can't remember the exact number I calculated last night, but $12 is close enough. Is FR right - is there a p/t has to be removed to take that one? Please advise. I'll look at the p/t from the other trays first.

[EGQ]

My wife is always on the lookout for packages. She'll take good care of it if it arrives while I'm out of town.

[prophetic_joe]

Prophetic_Joe:
I'll set the value on the Simones at $12US. I can't remember the exact number I calculated last night, but $12 is close enough. Is FR right - is there a p/t has to be removed to take that one? Please advise. I'll look at the p/t from the other trays first.

That is correct. If I switch out I would switch out the Partagas which would work as that is one that is being questioned anyway. Let me look into what I have though.

[craig]

Take 36 D-Long Cohiba Maduro 5 Secreto 2008 $7.87 for #44 Partagas Serie D No.4 $7.92
Mrtr33: I can't come up with the $7.92 avg. on the PSD#4. I threw out the lowest two prices and still get $7.69.
badwhale:Take 36 ~ Worth:$7.88 Put 44 ~ Worth: $7.48
prophetic_joe:The PSD #4 price was the price I found for single currently on one of the only ISOM sites I know. I have not found a very good way to average those sticks. I can find something closer that I know the exact price of, I was attempting to keep as many ISOM for ISOM ttrades as possible though.

Take: Mad5 Secretos is at $8.04 currently (ten prices), but came into the pass at $7.87.

Put: I have ten SD#4 prices: $ 175.15 $ 223.95 $ 172.25 $ 164.00 $ 198.00 $ 171.00 $ 173.60 $ 229.40 $ 168.75 $ 194.30.

The numbers show the typical two humps for Cuban cigar pricing. Average works out to $7.48/stick, i.e., no prices thrown out.

So we're essentially 40 cents under.

Take #28 D-Long Partagás Short Cab Aug 06 $4.78 for #45 Camacho Coyolar Super Toro $4.87
mrtr33: T #28 I came up with an average price of $3.90, but maybe I did my math wrong/P #45 is dead-on.
badwhale:Take 28 ~ Worth:$4.78 Put 45 ~ Worth: $4.88

Take: I've got nine prices Party Short cab of 50: $ 187.62 $ 172.75 $ 184.00 $ 239.00 $ 198.24 $ 173.10 $ 203.05 $ 203.04 $ 192.96
Averaging comes out to $3.90. The $4.78 probably comes from box of 25 pricing.

Put:The Camacho Coyolar Super Toro appears to have a set price of $121.95/25, or $4.88/stick.

So we're kicking the value of this slot up almost a buck.

Take #34 34 C-Big Vegas Robaina Unicos 2008 $7.60 for #46 Hemingway Classic Nat $7.50
mrtr33: I also had a question about T #34/P #46. Even if the Hemingway Classic Nat is $7.50, how is that an equal or greater trade than the Vegas Robaina - $7.60? Just curious. I came up with $7.34 as the price for the Hemingway Classic Natural.
badwhale:Take 34 ~ Worth:$8.36 Put 46 ~ Worth: $7.34
prophetic_joe: As for the Hemingway Versus the VR the reasoning I had was that it was .10 and we had a discussion previously of trying to not keep upping the value of stick so as some of the newer participants could still participate without breaking their bank. I just figured value for value a dime was close enough. Vegas Robaina price is directly from the first post. It says there $7.60 so that's what I went with.

Take: $7.60 pass value is about $0.75 under current market value.

Put: I get nine prices: 172.95 179.95 187.95 185.95 172.95 189.99 181.95 189.95 189.95 giving an average price of $7.34/stick.

So, a quarter under.

Now that you know the pricing, would you like to have a look at any of these again (or replace one of the two with the Simones)?

Your choice, as I'm happy with the puts/takes so far .

<learning point for first-timers>
Rule #2 says equal "estimated value." Value, not estimated value, is defined by rule #3. In other words, estimated value is what the pass participant says it is, as long as the host agrees. Using comparison shopper tables of prices is a good strategy to avoid being questioned, but it isn't perfect. I want first-timers to use the shopper and search for pricing for others because that's where valuation starts, and, in practice, pricing can be an effective strategy to avoid, or handle, additional discussion of one's puts/takes. However, one must always keep in mind that comparison pricing is just one estimate of value, and that there is no appeal from a host's decision.
</learning point>

edit: Boli Simones

First two pages of a Yahoo search on Bolivar Simones revealed the following ordered prices: US$: $412.20/50; $687/50
CA$ converted to US$: $10.52/1; $285.92/25; $790.88/50; $436.15/25; $482.44/25, and $21.01/1.

Last three prices are actually Canadian domestic (B&M) prices, i.e., with taxes, in two different provinces. Those three prices were ignored in order to compare export prices. The average of remaining prices was $11.95/stick; $12 was within a nickel.

[prophetic_joe]

Ok here's what I will do.


Take 36 D-Long Cohiba Maduro 5 Secreto 2008 $7.87 for #44 Partagas Serie D No.4 $7.48

Take #26 D-Long Bolivar Simones RE Canada Nov 07 for #45 Padron 1926 #6 $12.53

Take #34 34 C-Big Vegas Robaina Unicos 2008 $7.60 for #46 Rocky Patel Vintage 92 Torpedo $7.86 (That's taking the 3 lowest values in the comparison shopper and averaging a price.)

If this works let me know.