I don't believe the phenomenon occurs simply based on "cold". It's a combination of the right scenario / conditions - which NO, I don't have the exact formula or I'd be on an infomercial demonstrating rather than wasting your time here lol.
As an example, the experience I had where I manufactured the cooling process (because of an extended period of heat during one summer), in that example, cigars in
I believe it was 3 boxes formed plume. In each of the boxes I noticed, only a couple of cigars with-in the said boxes had it - the rest didn't and of what I went through (probably 15 or so other boxes) none showed plume.
Again, I'll reiterate I'm
NO EXPERT or authority on the subject. In offering
my own opinion, my conclusion in many ways agrees with yours: The formation appears to be a combination of factors that don't happen or at least aren't noticed / witnessed very often. That in itself is the most plausible explanation - regardless of what is believed to transpire (beyond the rareness of the occurrences).
See my drivel above as far as my thoughts on the rareness.
I'd add that if we agree it's probably trapped oil, a cigar that has been poorly kept over years probably would be DEAD and less likely to have an abundance of oil / moisture playing on its surface. No? Still my own thoughts, but it seems likely that the proper / adequate storage conditions are a given component in the equation. Would you disagree?
If you don't mind I now have a couple of questions:
*Does the crystallization occur before the oozing or after?
*If before, would crystals not damage / puncture the wrapper surface when they oozed through?
*Can you or any of the sources you've scoured describe what in the perfect long term storage conditions causes the oil to either crystallize and get through the wrapper (OR) as oil seep through the wrapper and then crystallize on the surface?
Point being like something more than simply flash cooling must be at work, can't we conclude there are plenty of very well kept cigars over long hauls that never develop plume... or should we say never are observed to have? Using the logic you provided, hasn't there got to be something in addition to consistent, optimal storage? Or shouldn't the observation be made with more "well kept" cigars?
Again no argument that proper storage is likely a prerequisite.
To offer another angle, if we agree that proper storage is a given, would you rule out or ignore that the "longer" / consistent the proper storage occurs, the more time & opportunities exists to examine the phenomenon occur with a cigar or group of? I.E. does a person in poor health (
poor storage) that only lives 15 years have a better chance of witnessing a comet than a healthy person (
optimal storage) that lives 95 years?
These are just my thoughts.
Don't take em' as gospel. I enjoy hearing other theories, explanations or just plain thoughts from any / everyone who has a take. So please fire away.

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