I was just talking to my shop owner and one of the cigar reps about this very issue a few days ago. The shop I frequent has been in business since before the last boom. He said he watched the whole cigar market literally dry up and shops closed left and right. He was able to survive because he got into it at the right time.

We are currently into another mini cigar boom, according to the rep. He said sales of cigars has not been this good for a few years - and it just keeps getting better every day. This worried him, especially given the last boom. He is thinking that as this boom brings cigar companies deeper into the market, offering a wider variety and adding more lines to the already heavily saturated market, his feeling was that there will be a plateau coming up, and most likely a shrink. He does not believe we will have a bottom out like the last time - primarily because most cigar companies are far wiser than the last one - but those that open cigar shops right now had better have substantial resources to weather the shrink that he feels is coming.

My shop owner agrees with that assessment, saying he was glad when he got in and glad he is positioned where he is now. He has low debt (he has bought his building and over the years has slowly expanded appropriately to match the current situation). He is prepared to cut back if necessary, without having to shut down the business. In other words, he has the resources to weather a shrink, if and when it comes.