Fidel Castro temporarily relinquishes power

[cls515]

There is money to be made in and from Cuba. So, I think the embargo will eventually be lifted.

[WhiteWidow]

I'm just looking at this from a cigar point of view, so keeping all other economic opportunities aside, does anyone agree with the theory that the embargo has kept prices down on both Cuban and non-Cuban cigars, as well as increased the qualtiy and variety of non-Cuban brands?

I can understand an immediate spike in Cuban prices, but would this not even itself out eventually? And I wonder how long that would take.

I think SC is right, they would probably do it on a gradual basis.

[cigar no baka]

Well Raul is almost as old as his older brother. And not nearly as charismatic. So things may change, maybe not till after he dies, but he may not have the same level of control as Fidel did. And after Raul goes, it is anyones guess.....

I would bet on the political situation changing rapidly, and eventually economic ties to the US again. The simple overwhelming prosperity of America will be irresistable unless there is some something stronger than the economic motive.

[nhcigarfan]

nothing will change,

I forgot who's timeline said around 2012 a change will occur. That sounds pretty good to me. Nothing to soon. Furthermore, don't forget how powerful the tobacco lobby is, letting cuban tobacco in will only happen so long as they get their share of the profits. There will be some back door deal on distribution and such before any major moves are made,

[Shelby07]

nothing will change,

I forgot who's timeline said around 2012 a change will occur. That sounds pretty good to me. Nothing to soon. Furthermore, don't forget how powerful the tobacco lobby is, letting cuban tobacco in will only happen so long as they get their share of the profits. There will be some back door deal on distribution and such before any major moves are made,

Also, it is a big political issue since Florida is a swing state and the Cuban-American population there does not want the embargo lifted. Neither party wants to piss them off and risk losing votes. I think if anything is allowed, it will be for the US to make oil deals now that there was a huge oil reserve found in Cuban waters.

[Empire23]

From what Ive read, Raul is far more radical than Fidel. Fidel even said it himself, that his brother is worse than him. Raul also said that "It would be more difficult to deal with" refering to the the US dealing with communist Cuba if he took over and nothing changed.

[cigar no baka]

Yep, but he is 75. I bet he's got 1-5 years max before he either kicks the bucket or gets so sick that a change of power will occur. And then things may change, depending on who takes charge and the mood of the Cuban people themselves.