Fidel Castro temporarily relinquishes power

[hex1848]

Fidel Castro temporarily relinquished his presidential powers to his brother Raul on Monday night and told Cubans he underwent surgery.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2006-07-31-cuba-castro_x.htm

I hope this is the beginning of the end.

[drew_goring]

When he cashes out, I really don't see anything happening to the trade embargo. Power will just be transferred and business will go on as usual.

[brian]

Dude is a bizzilion years old, he couldn't have much longer anyway...

[hex1848]

bleh, I get the double post smack down... sorry BK

http://www.cigarsmokers.com/showthre...7578#post57578

[bigpoppapuff]

many cubans that i know (from the biz/industry) feel that raul may be worse.....what is your feeling,hex??...

[Shelby07]

Interesting -- I read this a couple of days ago. Timing is everything.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14095881/

[hex1848]

many cubans that i know (from the biz/industry) feel that raul may be worse.....what is your feeling,hex??...

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...orld-headlines

Raul is a hardliner, but he is not as charismatic and is relatively unknown to the world. I think the unknown is what most people are afraid of. Its going to be interesting to watch unfold.

[WhiteWidow]

What is it even like to live in Cuba? When Castro dies, are the people going to want to take over, or are they going to let his brother assume control? I also wonder how much the US will interfere once he croaks.

From what I can gather, we don't really want the embargo to end, because it will screw everything up cigar-wise for at least a couple of years before it can stabilize again.

[CgarDan]

I doubt the imbargo will end now, because Fidel's brother is just as bad if not worse. Although by his look I will give him tops 10 years at controls and then who knows. Maybe once the new president takes over here in 2 years we will get someone who will have a more tolerant international relations policies when we have a chance at the embargo beiong lifted by sometime 2012 JMHO

[SuperChuck]

What is it even like to live in Cuba? When Castro dies, are the people going to want to take over, or are they going to let his brother assume control? I also wonder how much the US will interfere once he croaks.

From what I can gather, we don't really want the embargo to end, because it will screw everything up cigar-wise for at least a couple of years before it can stabilize again.

I imagine the US might step in to ensure a proper transfer of power (most likely to Fidel's brother).

While removing the embargo altogether might be a bad thing, it would be nice to see it phased out. Otherwise, that just becomes an excuse to keep the embargo...

[cls515]

There is money to be made in and from Cuba. So, I think the embargo will eventually be lifted.

[WhiteWidow]

I'm just looking at this from a cigar point of view, so keeping all other economic opportunities aside, does anyone agree with the theory that the embargo has kept prices down on both Cuban and non-Cuban cigars, as well as increased the qualtiy and variety of non-Cuban brands?

I can understand an immediate spike in Cuban prices, but would this not even itself out eventually? And I wonder how long that would take.

I think SC is right, they would probably do it on a gradual basis.

[cigar no baka]

Well Raul is almost as old as his older brother. And not nearly as charismatic. So things may change, maybe not till after he dies, but he may not have the same level of control as Fidel did. And after Raul goes, it is anyones guess.....

I would bet on the political situation changing rapidly, and eventually economic ties to the US again. The simple overwhelming prosperity of America will be irresistable unless there is some something stronger than the economic motive.

[nhcigarfan]

nothing will change,

I forgot who's timeline said around 2012 a change will occur. That sounds pretty good to me. Nothing to soon. Furthermore, don't forget how powerful the tobacco lobby is, letting cuban tobacco in will only happen so long as they get their share of the profits. There will be some back door deal on distribution and such before any major moves are made,

[Shelby07]

nothing will change,

I forgot who's timeline said around 2012 a change will occur. That sounds pretty good to me. Nothing to soon. Furthermore, don't forget how powerful the tobacco lobby is, letting cuban tobacco in will only happen so long as they get their share of the profits. There will be some back door deal on distribution and such before any major moves are made,

Also, it is a big political issue since Florida is a swing state and the Cuban-American population there does not want the embargo lifted. Neither party wants to piss them off and risk losing votes. I think if anything is allowed, it will be for the US to make oil deals now that there was a huge oil reserve found in Cuban waters.

[Empire23]

From what Ive read, Raul is far more radical than Fidel. Fidel even said it himself, that his brother is worse than him. Raul also said that "It would be more difficult to deal with" refering to the the US dealing with communist Cuba if he took over and nothing changed.

[cigar no baka]

Yep, but he is 75. I bet he's got 1-5 years max before he either kicks the bucket or gets so sick that a change of power will occur. And then things may change, depending on who takes charge and the mood of the Cuban people themselves.

[basil]

This is a pretty cool article. I especially like the part where his party leaves him behind during a failed action and have to go back to get him when they realize he's not in the car. The milkshake plot is pretty crazy too.

[WhiteWidow]

I wonder how nervous the surgeon was.