
Originally Posted by
Shelby07
I'd agree if you had 5 bowls with 1-200 in bowl 1, 201-400 in bowl 2, 401-600 in bowl 3, etc. Then and only then would you cut the odds down to 1 in 200. Each draw would give a different set of people a chance of 1 in 200, but the'd only have 1 chance. It seems that, for these purposes anyway, 1 chance in 200 is very different than 5 chances in 1000.
Here's another way of thinking about it. One chance in 200 means that after 200 draws I would be guaranteed to win, no matter what number I had. But in your scenario with 1000 balls in the bucket there would still be 800 losers after 200 draws.
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