Quote Originally Posted by craig View Post
Hopefully a decent explanation of why only Famous (and me ) are right:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLmzxmRcUTo

Only the first example is the same, but the rest are related, and show one of the most common - and most dangerous - fallacies that almost everyone makes.
Yeah... clear as mud.

Now, tell me which of the 5 draws will give me (well, not me... I didn't buy any tickets) a 1 in 200 chance of winning.

I contend that I never will have a 1 in 200 chance of winning with only 5 draws. The odds will go up after each draw, but will only reach 1 in 996.