If the Cuban embargo were to end -

**Bubba -NJ** · 10-27-2005, 11:24 AM

Just a general question out of curiosity . All opinions are welcome . If the Cuban embargo were to end , what do you think would happen to the non-cuban cigar market ?

**Jonsey5484** · 10-27-2005, 11:35 AM

I really don't think that anything would happen. If Cubans were made legal, they would not be as popular. There definatly would be an increase in buying of cuban cigars, but, people would still buy the other brands. But you don't have to worry about the Cuban embargo ending any time in the near future.

bigpoppapuff · 10-27-2005, 11:42 AM

nothing

**CoventryCat86** · 10-27-2005, 11:50 AM

I agree with BPP, nothing.

**TheSilentChamber** · 10-27-2005, 12:42 PM

I think there would be a slight decline in sales of non cuban cigars for a brief period, then it would even back out. From what I'v read the cuban cigar market in general is starting to decline because of quality. Younger generations are starting to take over factories and the passion that was once there in the fore generations has started to fade away and there more intested in the money aspect.

**Kayakinboy** · 10-27-2005, 01:26 PM

working in the smoke shop, you'd get some numb nut no brain atleast once a week asking for cubans. I'd point to pinars. Personally, I think the big deal about cuban cigars is that they are illegal. If they weren't, they'd just be cigars. There's only a few habanos I've gone nuts and they aren't even the big popular brands. San Cristobals are still the best habano, atleast I think so.

**nhcigarfan** · 10-27-2005, 02:01 PM

Due to the American market size I would think the average price of Cubans would rise globally due to the spike in American Demand and the relatively flat Cuban Supply. This could actually encourage non-American markets to carry more non-Cuban cigars so the net benefit could be positive to non-Cuban growers.

Absolutely no facts or numbers to back this up.

bigpoppapuff · 10-27-2005, 02:29 PM

you're over-thinking this....i've asked the question of christian eiroa (caribe)...he feels that there would not be a gouge in prices....there would be so much to sort out on behalf of cubans who live here and owned property,etc,etc,etc......what could you expect after things get sorted out??........the use of cuban tobacco's in dom,nic,and honduran cigars.......and most likely the use of their tobacco's in cuban cigars......and some sort of a mini-boom.

lew rothman (jr) is said to own enough cuban cigars,warehoused in europe,to supply many consumers for a long time....

remember...most/many of the leading cuban cigar makers and tobacco growers have been gone from cuba for 45 or so years.....

**stjohnroe** · 10-27-2005, 03:22 PM

The other issue that you have to look at is the ownership of certain trade marks within the USA, e.g. Cohiba. While there may be the demand, marketing precedent and trademark law may cause a major barrier.

**SuperChuck** · 10-27-2005, 03:28 PM

oooh, but what if Cuban leaf was made available to the great cigar makers in the Domincan, Honduras, etc.? Oh, the cigars they could make!

**Roham** · 10-28-2005, 12:36 AM

Originally Posted by nhcigarfan

Due to the American market size I would think the average price of Cubans would rise globally due to the spike in American Demand and the relatively flat Cuban Supply. This could actually encourage non-American markets to carry more non-Cuban cigars so the net benefit could be positive to non-Cuban growers.

Absolutely no facts or numbers to back this up.

I agree 100% with this. The prices of cubans would rise drastically, supply and demand. The rest of the market might stay the same.

So on that note, thank god for embargo's

**TheSilentChamber** · 10-28-2005, 01:06 AM

I imagine within the next 15 years the embargo will be lifted. I think its just a matter of waiting on Castro to die. I wouldnt even be suprised that if some point it even became a US territory (not a state). From the cigar side it may be both good and bad, it may give birth to another cigar boom where prices of everything goes up and anything that looks somewhat similar to a cigar can make it onto shelves. But if that did happen it would soon fade and lead to some very good blends. I'm sure most of us here will see it lifted before we die- so time will tell.

**SuperChuck** · 10-28-2005, 06:14 AM

Originally Posted by TheSilentChamber

From the cigar side it may be both good and bad, it may give birth to another cigar boom where prices of everything goes up and anything that looks somewhat similar to a cigar can make it onto shelves.

Uck. Yeah, I imagine there would be a bit of a gold rush. Everyone rushing out to get their hands on cubans would lead to a mess of fakes and legitimate, but awful, cigars.

**Scooter** · 10-28-2005, 10:22 AM

So potentially, if you can get your hands on a few select, well rated, limited editions, it could pay dividends in the end? Assuming you could keep your hands off them.

**stjohnroe** · 10-28-2005, 10:37 AM

Sounds like an excuse to spend some money to me

**Shagaroo** · 10-28-2005, 10:46 AM

I doubt seriously the domestic or cuban market would go all wonky if the embargo was lifted. Look around. It's not like ISOMs are hard to get as it is now.

**Roham** · 10-28-2005, 11:42 AM

Originally Posted by Scooter

So potentially, if you can get your hands on a few select, well rated, limited editions, it could pay dividends in the end? Assuming you could keep your hands off them.

If the embargo's lifted, maybe:)

**TheVitaleMob** · 10-28-2005, 01:15 PM

This is an interesting one. Many important factors here.

I personally think that when Castro dies, cuban leaf production will slow to a crawl for 2-3 years or so while the US intrusively sets up the government in Cuba. After that comes the privatization of the Cuban cigar companies and their crop which might take another year or so, not to mention a possible oversight committee constructed from the "former" Habanos SA to insure Quality, and enter stage left FDA and Surgeon General's Warnings (latter assuming US territory status).

Now enter the Gold Rush phase where nobody thinks about blending Cuban tobacco into "Domestic" cigars lasting a year and a half or so when quality takes a long back seat to quantity demand. I imagine that about 10 years after Castro dies, the market will stabilize with slightly higher prices and inflation, and finally come back to quality standards, eventually.

Note: I am not claiming any experience in the realm of economics, this is just my two cents.

reaganyouth84 · 10-28-2005, 02:02 PM

I recently asked this same question on here, and to a few people outside of the board. The answer I got was that if Castro dies, his brother would probably take control. The people in Cuba have said that Castro's brother is even worse than Castro himself, so if this is true the embargo could stay alive for years to come I would assume.

-Mike

**stjohnroe** · 10-28-2005, 03:19 PM

Originally Posted by reaganyouth84

I recently asked this same question on here, and to a few people outside of the board. The answer I got was that if Castro dies, his brother would probably take control. The people in Cuba have said that Castro's brother is even worse than Castro himself, so if this is true the embargo could stay alive for years to come I would assume.

-Mike

The above statement assumes some degree of sense on the behalf of the government (whichever one is in power at the time in the USA). Also, remember that the industry will have a lot of input as well.