If the Cuban embargo were to end -

[Scooter]

So potentially, if you can get your hands on a few select, well rated, limited editions, it could pay dividends in the end? Assuming you could keep your hands off them.

[stjohnroe]

Sounds like an excuse to spend some money to me

[Shagaroo]

I doubt seriously the domestic or cuban market would go all wonky if the embargo was lifted. Look around. It's not like ISOMs are hard to get as it is now.

[Roham]

So potentially, if you can get your hands on a few select, well rated, limited editions, it could pay dividends in the end? Assuming you could keep your hands off them.

If the embargo's lifted, maybe:)

[TheVitaleMob]

This is an interesting one. Many important factors here.

I personally think that when Castro dies, cuban leaf production will slow to a crawl for 2-3 years or so while the US intrusively sets up the government in Cuba. After that comes the privatization of the Cuban cigar companies and their crop which might take another year or so, not to mention a possible oversight committee constructed from the "former" Habanos SA to insure Quality, and enter stage left FDA and Surgeon General's Warnings (latter assuming US territory status).

Now enter the Gold Rush phase where nobody thinks about blending Cuban tobacco into "Domestic" cigars lasting a year and a half or so when quality takes a long back seat to quantity demand. I imagine that about 10 years after Castro dies, the market will stabilize with slightly higher prices and inflation, and finally come back to quality standards, eventually.

Note: I am not claiming any experience in the realm of economics, this is just my two cents.

[reaganyouth84]

I recently asked this same question on here, and to a few people outside of the board. The answer I got was that if Castro dies, his brother would probably take control. The people in Cuba have said that Castro's brother is even worse than Castro himself, so if this is true the embargo could stay alive for years to come I would assume.

-Mike

[stjohnroe]

I recently asked this same question on here, and to a few people outside of the board. The answer I got was that if Castro dies, his brother would probably take control. The people in Cuba have said that Castro's brother is even worse than Castro himself, so if this is true the embargo could stay alive for years to come I would assume.

-Mike

The above statement assumes some degree of sense on the behalf of the government (whichever one is in power at the time in the USA). Also, remember that the industry will have a lot of input as well.

[cls515]

I think if the embargo was lifted, the USA would completely dominate the Cuban cigar industry and non-cubans would take a hit.

[TheSilentChamber]

Also from a quality standpoint, if the embargo was lifted Cubans (of the human kind) could come to America legally, So I imagine the Cuban population would take a pretty big hit and alot of those would be people who work on the farms and at the factories.

Isnt Castro's brother almost as old as he is?

[TheVitaleMob]

I recently asked this same question on here, and to a few people outside of the board. The answer I got was that if Castro dies, his brother would probably take control. The people in Cuba have said that Castro's brother is even worse than Castro himself, so if this is true the embargo could stay alive for years to come I would assume.

-Mike

Would the US government choose to lay dormant when Castro dies though? Even if his brother does take over, could the US jump in quickly enough and force themselves on the regime? I mean, what is actually holding back the US from taking Cuba; the government has had their hands in the middle east for so long that I can almost assume that they are not bothered by scruples at all.

[TheSilentChamber]

I dont think the US would play a forcefull roll to put anyone out of office in cuba or to take over the country. I think if there government were to collapse we would step in and play kinda an "inactive" roll like we do with some of the other small countries around our coast.

[SuperChuck]

I dont think the US would play a forcefull roll put put anyone out of office in cuba or to take over the country. I think if there government were to collapse we would step in and play kinda an "inactive" roll like we do with some of the other small countries around our coast.

For example, Puerto Rico, Afghanistan, and Iraq...