If the Cuban embargo were to end -

[Roham]

Due to the American market size I would think the average price of Cubans would rise globally due to the spike in American Demand and the relatively flat Cuban Supply. This could actually encourage non-American markets to carry more non-Cuban cigars so the net benefit could be positive to non-Cuban growers.

Absolutely no facts or numbers to back this up.

I agree 100% with this. The prices of cubans would rise drastically, supply and demand. The rest of the market might stay the same.


So on that note, thank god for embargo's

[TheSilentChamber]

I imagine within the next 15 years the embargo will be lifted. I think its just a matter of waiting on Castro to die. I wouldnt even be suprised that if some point it even became a US territory (not a state). From the cigar side it may be both good and bad, it may give birth to another cigar boom where prices of everything goes up and anything that looks somewhat similar to a cigar can make it onto shelves. But if that did happen it would soon fade and lead to some very good blends. I'm sure most of us here will see it lifted before we die- so time will tell.

[SuperChuck]

From the cigar side it may be both good and bad, it may give birth to another cigar boom where prices of everything goes up and anything that looks somewhat similar to a cigar can make it onto shelves.

Uck. Yeah, I imagine there would be a bit of a gold rush. Everyone rushing out to get their hands on cubans would lead to a mess of fakes and legitimate, but awful, cigars.

[Scooter]

So potentially, if you can get your hands on a few select, well rated, limited editions, it could pay dividends in the end? Assuming you could keep your hands off them.

[stjohnroe]

Sounds like an excuse to spend some money to me

[Shagaroo]

I doubt seriously the domestic or cuban market would go all wonky if the embargo was lifted. Look around. It's not like ISOMs are hard to get as it is now.

[Roham]

So potentially, if you can get your hands on a few select, well rated, limited editions, it could pay dividends in the end? Assuming you could keep your hands off them.

If the embargo's lifted, maybe:)

[TheVitaleMob]

This is an interesting one. Many important factors here.

I personally think that when Castro dies, cuban leaf production will slow to a crawl for 2-3 years or so while the US intrusively sets up the government in Cuba. After that comes the privatization of the Cuban cigar companies and their crop which might take another year or so, not to mention a possible oversight committee constructed from the "former" Habanos SA to insure Quality, and enter stage left FDA and Surgeon General's Warnings (latter assuming US territory status).

Now enter the Gold Rush phase where nobody thinks about blending Cuban tobacco into "Domestic" cigars lasting a year and a half or so when quality takes a long back seat to quantity demand. I imagine that about 10 years after Castro dies, the market will stabilize with slightly higher prices and inflation, and finally come back to quality standards, eventually.

Note: I am not claiming any experience in the realm of economics, this is just my two cents.

[reaganyouth84]

I recently asked this same question on here, and to a few people outside of the board. The answer I got was that if Castro dies, his brother would probably take control. The people in Cuba have said that Castro's brother is even worse than Castro himself, so if this is true the embargo could stay alive for years to come I would assume.

-Mike