Budget Box Pass

[craig]

Just an FYI -- I'm off to Detroit for business (hopefully only a day or two). I should be back before Nate gets the package to me.

Is there someone who can take the package if you're not there? (and hopefully put it in a cool place?)

Prophetic_Joe:
I'll set the value on the Simones at $12US. I can't remember the exact number I calculated last night, but $12 is close enough. Is FR right - is there a p/t has to be removed to take that one? Please advise. I'll look at the p/t from the other trays first.

[EGQ]

My wife is always on the lookout for packages. She'll take good care of it if it arrives while I'm out of town.

[prophetic_joe]

Prophetic_Joe:
I'll set the value on the Simones at $12US. I can't remember the exact number I calculated last night, but $12 is close enough. Is FR right - is there a p/t has to be removed to take that one? Please advise. I'll look at the p/t from the other trays first.

That is correct. If I switch out I would switch out the Partagas which would work as that is one that is being questioned anyway. Let me look into what I have though.

[craig]

Take 36 D-Long Cohiba Maduro 5 Secreto 2008 $7.87 for #44 Partagas Serie D No.4 $7.92
Mrtr33: I can't come up with the $7.92 avg. on the PSD#4. I threw out the lowest two prices and still get $7.69.
badwhale:Take 36 ~ Worth:$7.88 Put 44 ~ Worth: $7.48
prophetic_joe:The PSD #4 price was the price I found for single currently on one of the only ISOM sites I know. I have not found a very good way to average those sticks. I can find something closer that I know the exact price of, I was attempting to keep as many ISOM for ISOM ttrades as possible though.

Take: Mad5 Secretos is at $8.04 currently (ten prices), but came into the pass at $7.87.

Put: I have ten SD#4 prices: $ 175.15 $ 223.95 $ 172.25 $ 164.00 $ 198.00 $ 171.00 $ 173.60 $ 229.40 $ 168.75 $ 194.30.

The numbers show the typical two humps for Cuban cigar pricing. Average works out to $7.48/stick, i.e., no prices thrown out.

So we're essentially 40 cents under.

Take #28 D-Long Partagás Short Cab Aug 06 $4.78 for #45 Camacho Coyolar Super Toro $4.87
mrtr33: T #28 I came up with an average price of $3.90, but maybe I did my math wrong/P #45 is dead-on.
badwhale:Take 28 ~ Worth:$4.78 Put 45 ~ Worth: $4.88

Take: I've got nine prices Party Short cab of 50: $ 187.62 $ 172.75 $ 184.00 $ 239.00 $ 198.24 $ 173.10 $ 203.05 $ 203.04 $ 192.96
Averaging comes out to $3.90. The $4.78 probably comes from box of 25 pricing.

Put:The Camacho Coyolar Super Toro appears to have a set price of $121.95/25, or $4.88/stick.

So we're kicking the value of this slot up almost a buck.

Take #34 34 C-Big Vegas Robaina Unicos 2008 $7.60 for #46 Hemingway Classic Nat $7.50
mrtr33: I also had a question about T #34/P #46. Even if the Hemingway Classic Nat is $7.50, how is that an equal or greater trade than the Vegas Robaina - $7.60? Just curious. I came up with $7.34 as the price for the Hemingway Classic Natural.
badwhale:Take 34 ~ Worth:$8.36 Put 46 ~ Worth: $7.34
prophetic_joe: As for the Hemingway Versus the VR the reasoning I had was that it was .10 and we had a discussion previously of trying to not keep upping the value of stick so as some of the newer participants could still participate without breaking their bank. I just figured value for value a dime was close enough. Vegas Robaina price is directly from the first post. It says there $7.60 so that's what I went with.

Take: $7.60 pass value is about $0.75 under current market value.

Put: I get nine prices: 172.95 179.95 187.95 185.95 172.95 189.99 181.95 189.95 189.95 giving an average price of $7.34/stick.

So, a quarter under.

Now that you know the pricing, would you like to have a look at any of these again (or replace one of the two with the Simones)?

Your choice, as I'm happy with the puts/takes so far .

<learning point for first-timers>
Rule #2 says equal "estimated value." Value, not estimated value, is defined by rule #3. In other words, estimated value is what the pass participant says it is, as long as the host agrees. Using comparison shopper tables of prices is a good strategy to avoid being questioned, but it isn't perfect. I want first-timers to use the shopper and search for pricing for others because that's where valuation starts, and, in practice, pricing can be an effective strategy to avoid, or handle, additional discussion of one's puts/takes. However, one must always keep in mind that comparison pricing is just one estimate of value, and that there is no appeal from a host's decision.
</learning point>

edit: Boli Simones

First two pages of a Yahoo search on Bolivar Simones revealed the following ordered prices: US$: $412.20/50; $687/50
CA$ converted to US$: $10.52/1; $285.92/25; $790.88/50; $436.15/25; $482.44/25, and $21.01/1.

Last three prices are actually Canadian domestic (B&M) prices, i.e., with taxes, in two different provinces. Those three prices were ignored in order to compare export prices. The average of remaining prices was $11.95/stick; $12 was within a nickel.

[prophetic_joe]

Ok here's what I will do.


Take 36 D-Long Cohiba Maduro 5 Secreto 2008 $7.87 for #44 Partagas Serie D No.4 $7.48

Take #26 D-Long Bolivar Simones RE Canada Nov 07 for #45 Padron 1926 #6 $12.53

Take #34 34 C-Big Vegas Robaina Unicos 2008 $7.60 for #46 Rocky Patel Vintage 92 Torpedo $7.86 (That's taking the 3 lowest values in the comparison shopper and averaging a price.)

If this works let me know.

[craig]

Ok here's what I will do.


Take 36 D-Long Cohiba Maduro 5 Secreto 2008 $7.87 for #44 Partagas Serie D No.4 $7.48

Take #26 D-Long Bolivar Simones RE Canada Nov 07 for #45 Padron 1926 #6 $12.53

Take #34 34 C-Big Vegas Robaina Unicos 2008 $7.60 for #46 Rocky Patel Vintage 92 Torpedo $7.86 (That's taking the 3 lowest values in the comparison shopper and averaging a price.)

If this works let me know.

Accepted, thanks. I didn't think the US$ would lose so much value in two weeks! Good thing I didn't post starting prices!

Please let me know your choices for squares.

EGQ: You're up!

[CAJUNBLAZE]

I know this is a starter pass, but I wanted to throw this out there. In all the passes I have been in, you must match or exceed the price point of the take.(as you're rule 2 states) Just wanted first timers know if they decide to join another pass. This rule is usual strictly enforced.

I don't think the Cohiba Maduro for the Partagas Serie D No.4 was a good trade, but I should have chimed before now.

When using the price comparison, do you use the single, box price, 25 or 50?

Rich

[prophetic_joe]

I know this is a starter pass, but I wanted to throw this out there. In all the passes I have been in, you must match or exceed the price point of the take.(as you're rule 2 states) Just wanted first timers know if they decide to join another pass. This rule is usual strictly enforced.

I don't think the Cohiba Maduro for the Partagas Serie D No.4 was a good trade, but I should have chimed before now.

When using the price comparison, do you use the single, box price, 25 or 50?

Rich

I have absolutely no problem switching that particular cigar out for you if it concerns you man. I haven't shipped yet. I know the pass leader has the final say but I don't want any other pass member to feel slighted by my puts either. Like I said before in previous passes I have been involved in th variety for variety (ie. ISOM for ISOM) rule has also been strictly enforced and I was attempting to keep in line with that more than exceeding the price. I changed out other for domestic cigars that are more in line with the price rule so if that would please the other pass members more than the Partagas I would be more than happy to do that.

[CAJUNBLAZE]

I have absolutely no problem switching that particular cigar out for you if it concerns you man. I haven't shipped yet. I know the pass leader has the final say but I don't want any other pass member to feel slighted by my puts either. Like I said before in previous passes I have been involved in th variety for variety (ie. ISOM for ISOM) rule has also been strictly enforced and I was attempting to keep in line with that more than exceeding the price. I changed out other for domestic cigars that are more in line with the price rule so if that would please the other pass members more than the Partagas I would be more than happy to do that.

No, I am good with the trade, and its was approved by the pass leader. I just wanted to point out that these trades are the exception not the rule.

How far back do we go in price before it's not ok?

Rich

[prophetic_joe]

No, I am good with the trade, and its was approved by the pass leader. I just wanted to point out that these trades are the exception not the rule.

How far back do we go in price before it's not ok?

Rich

Agreed but conversely how far forward? I plan on changing it out because in my eyes whether the pass leader accepts it or not if even one pass participant feels it's not fair then it's not. The pass is for everyone to enjoy and it ruins the enjoyment if someone is left with the feeling that something was not fair. It is my responsibility as an older member of the pass to help insure that everyone feels good about the pass. I do agree however that you should have spoken up a little sooner however I should have posted my P&T's in a more timely fashion as well so NHNF.

[ashauler]

No, I am good with the trade, and its was approved by the pass leader. I just wanted to point out that these trades are the exception not the rule.

How far back do we go in price before it's not ok?
Rich

Simple, when the pass host denies the trade.

[prophetic_joe]

Here's what I'm sending.

Take 36 D-Long Cohiba Maduro 5 Secreto 2008 $7.87 for #44 Ashton VSG Tres Mystique $8.18

Take #26 D-Long Bolivar Simones RE Canada Nov 07 for #45 Padron 1926 #6 $12.53

Take #34 34 C-Big Vegas Robaina Unicos 2008 $7.60 for #46 Rocky Patel Vintage 92 Torpedo $7.86 (That's taking the 3 lowest values in the comparison shopper and averaging a price.)

This will get out as soon as I get verification from EGQ

[EGQ]

I'll to post some proposed picks tonight or tomorrow morning.

[ashauler]

snip....

34 C-Big Vegas Robaina Unicos 2008 $7.60 for #46 Rocky Patel Vintage 92 Torpedo $7.86 (That's taking the 3 lowest values in the comparison shopper and averaging a price.)

This will get out as soon as I get verification from EGQ

There has to be a one-liner in this somewhere. Personally, 34C ain't all that big to me, but perhaps I'm spoiled.

[badwhale]

There has to be a one-liner in this somewhere. Personally, 34C ain't all that big to me, but perhaps I'm spoiled.

Ed? You wanna field this one?

Will

[heftysmokes]

You guys should start a seperate pool as to how many posts this thread is going to end up being...4 contestants, 3 actual participants, 130+ posts. This thing could hit 1k with no problem

[craig]

There has to be a one-liner in this somewhere. Personally, 34C ain't all that big to me, but perhaps I'm spoiled.

You really do like your avatar, don't you?

Here's what I'm sending.

Take 36 D-Long Cohiba Maduro 5 Secreto 2008 $7.87 for #44 Ashton VSG Tres Mystique $8.18

Take #26 D-Long Bolivar Simones RE Canada Nov 07 for #45 Padron 1926 #6 $12.53

Take #34 34 C-Big Vegas Robaina Unicos 2008 $7.60 for #46 Rocky Patel Vintage 92 Torpedo $7.86 (That's taking the 3 lowest values in the comparison shopper and averaging a price.)

This will get out as soon as I get verification from EGQ

Again, I'm good. I'll update the first post after DC .

What follows are just examples - please do not change p/t's.

No, I am good with the trade, and its was approved by the pass leader. I just wanted to point out that these trades are the exception not the rule.

How far back do we go in price before it's not ok?

Rich

Yup. Prophetic_Joe wasn't making a rookie error; it appeared that he was doing his p/t within his understanding of equal value in the pass. The whole thing comes down to, "what is value?" This is a highly subjective thing, so we often use $$$ as a proxy for value. If the put comes in at higher $ than the take, then not many will argue. That's why a pricing mechanism is pretty explicitly defined for this first-timer pass. Follow the recipe and everything will be fine, almost all the time. That doesn't mean that one absolutely must follow the recipe.

For example, the initial p/t had a VR Unicos 2008 swapped for an AF Hemingway. First, we ignore the "ISOM"-ness of the VR because the pass host says so. (Almost all passes are ISOM for ISOM. Even when the rule isn't there, many consider it an unwritten rule. Please ignore this guideline for this pass, but keep it in mind generally.)

The AF came in, using current pricing, for a bit less than the VR. If one had looked at the cigars a few weeks prior, the AF would have been a bit more than the VR. This is because the AF is made and sold in US$, but the VR isn't, so exchange has an effect on the VR's price.

That p/t was changed to a RP Vintage, which had a higher price showing in the Comparison Shopper. Can't say anything now, can we? Well, most RP lovers know that the same cigar can be had without a band or a box for about $3. That certainly affects the perceived value of an RP Vintage. Many folks would also say that the AF Hemingway is a better cigar than the RP Vintage (at least, the RP vintage that one can buy now), but that is a subjective appraisal of value. However, the RP (with a band) comes in at a higher price than the VR - that objective measure of value cannot be easily questioned, and everyone's happy.

Another note - the per-stick price of the Secretos was even more affected than the VR - the price of the Secreto went up 20 cents in two weeks. However, the price - for pass purposes - remained at the original put price. Such currency fluctuations could have happened the other way. What the recent changes in exchange rates means (besides the Chinese freaking) is that an equal $ value put actually generates a little break for the person taking the Secretos. That's just the way this pass works. Many passes work on a current-value-only basis. Some have a combination of rules, like this pass. There are pluses and minuses to any of the schemes.

All that to say that pricing is one measure of value. Pricing is a reasonable proxy for value, it is a safe proxy, it is even in the pass rules as the accepted definition of value, but it isn't the be-all and end-all. However, when pricing doesn't agree with value, discussion inevitably results.

As for going up or down in price, if folks want guidelines (a GUIDE, not a RULE), then I'm thinking - for (only) this pass - that ideally we're in a range from 0% to +5% in put value, relative to the cigar taken. Another 5% either way, i.e., -5% to +10%, I'll likely accept with an explanation. More then that may rate a comment, although there is more slack on low-priced and high-priced, e.g., a $2.25 put on a $2.00 take is more than a 10% increase, but is okay. (BTW, it is 0% to 5% instead of +/-2.5% due to (some folks') human nature.)

While I'm here - when the put and take are sold by the same store, you will usually get a better comparison by excluding the merchants that sell only one or the other. For example, let's say the Secretos was sold by 8 stores, and the SD#4 was sold by 10 stores - those eight stores that also sold Secretos, plus two that didn't. To calculate average prices, I would only look at the eight stores common to both sticks.

[EGQ]

Here are my proposed trades. Looking forward to the comments.


Maduro tray:
Take: #6 Oliva O M Torp, $5.59 - Put: #47 AF Hemingway Signature $6.40 (pd)
Take: #38 La Aurora 1495 Churchill, $7.67 - Put: #48 RyJ Belicoso May 2008, $7.59

Triple corta tray:
Take: #9 JLP Conserva, $1.72 - Put #49 Nestor Reserve Maduro Torpedo, $1.86 (pd)
Take: #39 El Titan de Bronze SG Redemption Lancero, $4.20 - Put #50 AF Hemingway Short Story, $4.60 (pd)

Long Stick tray:
Take: #18 Partagas Salomone, ~$20.00 - Put #51 Casa Fuente Double Robusto, $22.00
Take: #19 Por Larranaga Montecarlo, $3.71 - Put #52 Graycliff 1666 Presidente, $3.80 (pd)

Long-Filler tray:
Take #23 Montecristo #4, $5.35 - Put #53 Macanudo Vintage 2000 I, $5.38 (pd)
Take #25 Por Larranaga Petit Corona Cab, $ 4.46 - Put #54 Gurkha Legend Anniversario, $4.58 (CI has them 12 for $55, which is less than I paid)

Those marked (pd) are ones I paid less then the going rate.

[craig]

Here are my proposed trades. Looking forward to the comments.


Maduro tray:
Take: #6 Oliva O M Torp, $5.59 - Put: #47 AF Hemingway Signature $6.40 (pd)
Take: #38 La Aurora 1495 Churchill, $7.67 - Put: #48 RyJ Belicoso May 2008, $7.59

Triple corta tray:
Take: #9 JLP Conserva, $1.72 - Put #49 Nestor Reserve Maduro Torpedo, $1.86 (pd)
Take: #39 El Titan de Bronze SG Redemption Lancero, $4.20 - Put #50 AF Hemingway Short Story, $4.60 (pd)

Long Stick tray:
Take: #18 Partagas Salomone, ~$20.00 - Put #51 Casa Fuente Double Robusto, $22.00
Take: #19 Por Larranaga Montecarlo, $3.71 - Put #52 Graycliff 1666 Presidente, $3.80 (pd)

Long-Filler tray:
Take #23 Montecristo #4, $5.35 - Put #53 Macanudo Vintage 2000 I, $5.38 (pd)
Take #25 Por Larranaga Petit Corona Cab, $ 4.46 - Put #54 Gurkha Legend Anniversario, $4.58 (CI has them 12 for $55, which is less than I paid)

Those marked (pd) are ones I paid less then the going rate.

Thanks EGQ! Looks like you've scored yourself some good deals on cigars in the past!

I haven't smoked the Salomone yet, or the Conservas with the new looks-like-CT-shade wrapper leaf, but the PL's and the MC#4 are ready-to-smoke, and the PL montecarlo may have just passed its peak. Note that the MC#4 should probably be dryboxed before smoking.

FYI for all: I agreed, in advance, to the Casa Fuente Double Robusto price of $22 (which is the MSRP listed on vitolas.net). The cigar's pricing can be controversial, as the price reflects that Casa Fuente cigars are only sold at the Las Vegas location. OTOH, the Party Salomones also carries a premium due to its LCDH band. (LCDH-banded cigars seem to have higher prices in their first year or so, and this particular Salomone was from the initial release of the cigar.)

So ... what do folks say?

[badwhale]

All of the takes look close to what I calculated.
I didn't do the math on the puts yet. I'll update this post later with my full analysis

Otherwise, I think it all looks ok.

Will