Budget Box Pass

[ashauler]

snip....

34 C-Big Vegas Robaina Unicos 2008 $7.60 for #46 Rocky Patel Vintage 92 Torpedo $7.86 (That's taking the 3 lowest values in the comparison shopper and averaging a price.)

This will get out as soon as I get verification from EGQ

There has to be a one-liner in this somewhere. Personally, 34C ain't all that big to me, but perhaps I'm spoiled.

[badwhale]

There has to be a one-liner in this somewhere. Personally, 34C ain't all that big to me, but perhaps I'm spoiled.

Ed? You wanna field this one?

Will

[heftysmokes]

You guys should start a seperate pool as to how many posts this thread is going to end up being...4 contestants, 3 actual participants, 130+ posts. This thing could hit 1k with no problem

[craig]

You guys should start a seperate pool as to how many posts this thread is going to end up being...4 contestants, 3 actual participants, 130+ posts. This thing could hit 1k with no problem

1k? Half that would be my guess.

Will the pass see August? Maybe not, with a bit of luck.

Will the pass see September? I hope not, but it might be close.

Does it make sense to run a pass in the summer? Nope ...

[craig]

There has to be a one-liner in this somewhere. Personally, 34C ain't all that big to me, but perhaps I'm spoiled.

You really do like your avatar, don't you?

Here's what I'm sending.

Take 36 D-Long Cohiba Maduro 5 Secreto 2008 $7.87 for #44 Ashton VSG Tres Mystique $8.18

Take #26 D-Long Bolivar Simones RE Canada Nov 07 for #45 Padron 1926 #6 $12.53

Take #34 34 C-Big Vegas Robaina Unicos 2008 $7.60 for #46 Rocky Patel Vintage 92 Torpedo $7.86 (That's taking the 3 lowest values in the comparison shopper and averaging a price.)

This will get out as soon as I get verification from EGQ

Again, I'm good. I'll update the first post after DC .

What follows are just examples - please do not change p/t's.

No, I am good with the trade, and its was approved by the pass leader. I just wanted to point out that these trades are the exception not the rule.

How far back do we go in price before it's not ok?

Rich

Yup. Prophetic_Joe wasn't making a rookie error; it appeared that he was doing his p/t within his understanding of equal value in the pass. The whole thing comes down to, "what is value?" This is a highly subjective thing, so we often use $$$ as a proxy for value. If the put comes in at higher $ than the take, then not many will argue. That's why a pricing mechanism is pretty explicitly defined for this first-timer pass. Follow the recipe and everything will be fine, almost all the time. That doesn't mean that one absolutely must follow the recipe.

For example, the initial p/t had a VR Unicos 2008 swapped for an AF Hemingway. First, we ignore the "ISOM"-ness of the VR because the pass host says so. (Almost all passes are ISOM for ISOM. Even when the rule isn't there, many consider it an unwritten rule. Please ignore this guideline for this pass, but keep it in mind generally.)

The AF came in, using current pricing, for a bit less than the VR. If one had looked at the cigars a few weeks prior, the AF would have been a bit more than the VR. This is because the AF is made and sold in US$, but the VR isn't, so exchange has an effect on the VR's price.

That p/t was changed to a RP Vintage, which had a higher price showing in the Comparison Shopper. Can't say anything now, can we? Well, most RP lovers know that the same cigar can be had without a band or a box for about $3. That certainly affects the perceived value of an RP Vintage. Many folks would also say that the AF Hemingway is a better cigar than the RP Vintage (at least, the RP vintage that one can buy now), but that is a subjective appraisal of value. However, the RP (with a band) comes in at a higher price than the VR - that objective measure of value cannot be easily questioned, and everyone's happy.

Another note - the per-stick price of the Secretos was even more affected than the VR - the price of the Secreto went up 20 cents in two weeks. However, the price - for pass purposes - remained at the original put price. Such currency fluctuations could have happened the other way. What the recent changes in exchange rates means (besides the Chinese freaking) is that an equal $ value put actually generates a little break for the person taking the Secretos. That's just the way this pass works. Many passes work on a current-value-only basis. Some have a combination of rules, like this pass. There are pluses and minuses to any of the schemes.

All that to say that pricing is one measure of value. Pricing is a reasonable proxy for value, it is a safe proxy, it is even in the pass rules as the accepted definition of value, but it isn't the be-all and end-all. However, when pricing doesn't agree with value, discussion inevitably results.

As for going up or down in price, if folks want guidelines (a GUIDE, not a RULE), then I'm thinking - for (only) this pass - that ideally we're in a range from 0% to +5% in put value, relative to the cigar taken. Another 5% either way, i.e., -5% to +10%, I'll likely accept with an explanation. More then that may rate a comment, although there is more slack on low-priced and high-priced, e.g., a $2.25 put on a $2.00 take is more than a 10% increase, but is okay. (BTW, it is 0% to 5% instead of +/-2.5% due to (some folks') human nature.)

While I'm here - when the put and take are sold by the same store, you will usually get a better comparison by excluding the merchants that sell only one or the other. For example, let's say the Secretos was sold by 8 stores, and the SD#4 was sold by 10 stores - those eight stores that also sold Secretos, plus two that didn't. To calculate average prices, I would only look at the eight stores common to both sticks.

[EGQ]

Here are my proposed trades. Looking forward to the comments.


Maduro tray:
Take: #6 Oliva O M Torp, $5.59 - Put: #47 AF Hemingway Signature $6.40 (pd)
Take: #38 La Aurora 1495 Churchill, $7.67 - Put: #48 RyJ Belicoso May 2008, $7.59

Triple corta tray:
Take: #9 JLP Conserva, $1.72 - Put #49 Nestor Reserve Maduro Torpedo, $1.86 (pd)
Take: #39 El Titan de Bronze SG Redemption Lancero, $4.20 - Put #50 AF Hemingway Short Story, $4.60 (pd)

Long Stick tray:
Take: #18 Partagas Salomone, ~$20.00 - Put #51 Casa Fuente Double Robusto, $22.00
Take: #19 Por Larranaga Montecarlo, $3.71 - Put #52 Graycliff 1666 Presidente, $3.80 (pd)

Long-Filler tray:
Take #23 Montecristo #4, $5.35 - Put #53 Macanudo Vintage 2000 I, $5.38 (pd)
Take #25 Por Larranaga Petit Corona Cab, $ 4.46 - Put #54 Gurkha Legend Anniversario, $4.58 (CI has them 12 for $55, which is less than I paid)

Those marked (pd) are ones I paid less then the going rate.

[craig]

Here are my proposed trades. Looking forward to the comments.


Maduro tray:
Take: #6 Oliva O M Torp, $5.59 - Put: #47 AF Hemingway Signature $6.40 (pd)
Take: #38 La Aurora 1495 Churchill, $7.67 - Put: #48 RyJ Belicoso May 2008, $7.59

Triple corta tray:
Take: #9 JLP Conserva, $1.72 - Put #49 Nestor Reserve Maduro Torpedo, $1.86 (pd)
Take: #39 El Titan de Bronze SG Redemption Lancero, $4.20 - Put #50 AF Hemingway Short Story, $4.60 (pd)

Long Stick tray:
Take: #18 Partagas Salomone, ~$20.00 - Put #51 Casa Fuente Double Robusto, $22.00
Take: #19 Por Larranaga Montecarlo, $3.71 - Put #52 Graycliff 1666 Presidente, $3.80 (pd)

Long-Filler tray:
Take #23 Montecristo #4, $5.35 - Put #53 Macanudo Vintage 2000 I, $5.38 (pd)
Take #25 Por Larranaga Petit Corona Cab, $ 4.46 - Put #54 Gurkha Legend Anniversario, $4.58 (CI has them 12 for $55, which is less than I paid)

Those marked (pd) are ones I paid less then the going rate.

Thanks EGQ! Looks like you've scored yourself some good deals on cigars in the past!

I haven't smoked the Salomone yet, or the Conservas with the new looks-like-CT-shade wrapper leaf, but the PL's and the MC#4 are ready-to-smoke, and the PL montecarlo may have just passed its peak. Note that the MC#4 should probably be dryboxed before smoking.

FYI for all: I agreed, in advance, to the Casa Fuente Double Robusto price of $22 (which is the MSRP listed on vitolas.net). The cigar's pricing can be controversial, as the price reflects that Casa Fuente cigars are only sold at the Las Vegas location. OTOH, the Party Salomones also carries a premium due to its LCDH band. (LCDH-banded cigars seem to have higher prices in their first year or so, and this particular Salomone was from the initial release of the cigar.)

So ... what do folks say?

[badwhale]

All of the takes look close to what I calculated.
I didn't do the math on the puts yet. I'll update this post later with my full analysis

Otherwise, I think it all looks ok.

Will