A question for statisticians

[BigMacFU]

No way Craig. Regardless of interpretation, If one person buys one ticket, and the other 999 tickets are all sold, in the first round he has one chance out of 1000 to win any of the five identical prizes. After that prize is gone, the rest of the 999 individual ticket holders each have one chance in 999 to win one of the four remaining identical prizes. There is only one of five identical prizes available for each round, with only one less ticket holder in the running with each round. I haven't seen the ad, and I like Famous, but if they are describing a 1/200 chance of winning in a one-prize-per-drawing from a pool beginning with 1000, then it's misleading.

Craig is right, it's just that Famous' justification is weak. Damn straight this thing doesn't work out to 1/200 chance to win in any real sense. But, it satisfies the laws in place for drawings/lotteries I'm sure, and that's all famous is going to care about.

[basil]

I disagree. And if I'm seeing it right, Famous is convinced too. Just looked on the site at the raffle ad(s) and if they ever said anything about a 1/200 chance, it's gone now.

There's just no mathematical, ethical, and evidently legal, way to justify a 1 in 200 statement in that contest. Semantically? Maybe, but Famous' attempt has been pulled down.

[ashauler]

The only thing I've seen in this whole thread that makes sense to me is the guy in craigs video talking about head and tail. Neither of which I can argue with. ;)